Carrie Underwood - "Good Girl" (Read 424 times)

[Jhomes87]

New Single by Carrie Underwood - "Good Girl"

CLICK HERE to Listen (AllAccess)

Music Video: www.cmt.com/videos/carrie-underwood/748454/good-girl.jhtml (CMT)



Source: Carrie Underwood official website

Single Release Date: February 23 (Arista Nashville)

Songwriters: Carrie Underwood, Ashley Gorley, and Chris DeStefano

Chart Run: 30-19-15-11-11-10-8-8-8-8-7-5-5-4-1-4-7-recurrent

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Recent singles on the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart:

1) "Mama's Song" charted for 23 weeks, peaking at #2 on 1/22/11.
2) "Remind Me" (Brad Paisley Duet with Carrie Underwood) charted for 18 weeks, peaking at #1 on 9/10/11.

Billboard chart statistics for "Good Girl":

- "Good Girl" charted for 17 weeks, peaking at #1 on 6/16/12.

[Cody's Black Cadillac]

Very glad this recovered after it's four week stall at #8. Hoping for another #1 in this.

[Jhomes87]

I've been thinking all along, even during the 2 month slow period, that GG would eventually wake up and have a shot at #1. And I still think she does have a shot at #1, but those chances have decreased quite a bit. First, she let Jason Aldean get back ahead, and then it was the Zac Brown Band, and then it was newcomer Kip Moore, and now it may be Eric Church.

People elsewhere have been saying GG can tread water and wait out these songs long enough...but why should it have to wait in the first place? Its timing isn't gonna get any better. Just below Eric & Carrie now is Luke Bryan's "Drunk On You", a HUGE summertime hit in the making. He's not gonna slow down much at all, if any. In the end, I think the timing for GG was just bad from the beginning...it went up so fast and then backed off from all the other A-list stars. It was when the song decided to pull up sharply on the reigns, whether it was somewhat label-influenced or just hesitation by radio, that GG's chart run got way off course. It could've been #1 by now, if it had kept gaining strongly like we've seen Kip, Jason, ZBB, and many other top 10 songs do in recent weeks. But for some reason, GG just crawled along.

Looking at the top 10 on tonight's chart, there's pretty much no wiggle room. The top 5 songs all have more than 32.5 million, and usually about 36 million is good enough for #1, although sometimes it's closer to 37 million. But 3 of the top 5 songs have yet to hit #1, and one of them (SBAT) may not be done at #1. Someone's going to lose here, maybe multiple people will lose. ZBB has maybe 3 million at most to gain until they have a #1 worthy total, unless Kip keeps going up. In my opinion, the only chance at a #1 for the ZBB is this week, and if they can't gain enough by the end of the week to de-throne Kip, they'll be the 1st loser.

"Springsteen" is a colossal hit that is just selling more and more and will go down as Church's signature song. GG is a pretty big hit in its own right, having strong sales and achieving modest crossover airplay, but if it peaks at #2 or even #3, is it really any less of a hit? Labels want to call a song a #1 hit, but Carrie has a great album out that's selling pretty well and they have "Blown Away" on deck as the next single. I don't see Arista shelling out big bucks to bump GG from #2 to #1 for a lone week, just because it's not really logical. The song has done its job. I'm not saying it's ready to fall just yet--I do think it'll go at least top 3, but I just don't know how they can count on Kip and the ZBB vacating in time, AND navigating around Eric Church while holding off Luke Bryan. There's just too much going against this to allow for a clear path to #1.

GG will probably get some sort of a push, with Carrie set to co-host CC-USA in June, so again, her #1 chances are still alive...but I just don't think they're that good and I don't see Arista Borchetta-ing their way to a #1 hit. GG has turned out to be a pretty big lead single regardless of whether it peaks at #1 or #2 on country radio.

"Springsteen" is the one sure winner I see in the top 5 (well, ok, I guess Jason and Kip won as well since they've already hit #1). I think either Kip gets a 2nd week at the top a week from now, or ZBB is able to sneak in a lone week. After that, I predict 2 weeks at #1 for Eric Church (I was initially thinking 3, but Luke Bryan is too close), followed by 1 or 2 weeks at the top for Luke, who will likely be followed by Brantley Gilbert. I think the ZBB's only chance is this week, and if they can't get it done, they will be the 1st to "lose", and Carrie could be the 2nd one to "lose" if she gets blocked by "Springsteen".

[Zazie]

One problem with high expectations for GG at this point is the actual chart run for GG.

Passed by Aldean
Passed by ZBB
Passed by Moore
Passed by Church

Now if I'm a big fan of Gloriana, to pick an example of a less-than-powerhouse act, and my favorite Gloriana song is heading for #1 with modest gains but I've had to watch it get passed by a ton of superstar songs, I can hope for "treading water" as a benign explanation. After all the big songs pass the Gloriana song, if they can get enough audience, they will stop treading and take over #1.

But if I'm a Carrie fan, that scenario doesn't make sense. She could have gone up ahead of all those songs. Maybe not Aldean -- maybe that one was going to pass her anyway. But all the rest? I don't see it. If the song was a big Carrie lead single, it would have reached #1 in 10 or 11 weeks and by now it would be on the way down.

I have been using the "treading water" analogy for awhile now, but I don't really think it works. You tread water to maintain your position. And she's gone up in audience every week, but she hasn't maintained her position. She's been passed by all the big songs.

Sure, GG can still get to #1. But it will take a change in its established chart pattern, or else it will take a super-long run of weeks in the top 10. There hasn't been a song last more than 13 weeks in the top 10 all year, and GG probably can't get to #1 in less than a 12-week top 10 run, maybe 13, not counting her 2 weeks at #11 and not counting her drop weeks. #1 can happen. But it probably won't.