Kip Moore - "Hey Pretty Girl" (Read 6,678 times)

[Deleted]

Kip Moore stays at #25 for the second week.

[Jhomes87]

Kip had a decent gain of just over 1 million but it's gonna be a bit of a bumpy ride, given all the big names moving up the chart now. The new singles from Jason and Brad have already moved ahead, and Jake Owen also re-passed Kip. And now the new Tim/Taylor/Keith song plus The Band Perry and Zac Brown Band singles will all be moving ahead shortly as well. LOTS of big names there and there's just nothing that can be done...the big names go up first and fastest.

HPG is doing pretty good yet, though. The digital sales are starting to pick up too.

[myeverythingku]

Really hope that some of these songs don't ruin it for Kip...this is an amazing song and deserves to be a #1 hit!

[Jhomes87]

Kip's up another million over the last 3 days on Mediabase, which should mean a Billboard gain of about 1.5 million. HPG should finish the week right around the 10 million mark on Billboard. The Band Perry's "Done" will jump ahead and so will Tim/Taylor/Keith's "Highway Don't Care". Zac Brown Band's "Jump Right In" is also closing in but I don't think it will quite catch Kip this week.

The good news is that Kip will make some passes of his own. He should finally jump ahead of The Henningsens and Gloriana, and then both Toby Keith and Little Big Town will go recurrent so that opens up 2 more spots. Tim's "One Of Those Nights" might also go recurrent but I'm not sure about that one yet.

So Kip will get passed by 2 songs but he'll make 2 passes of his own, and then 2 songs will go recurrent. That makes for a +2, and HPG should check in at #23 on Billboard on Monday. Zac Brown Band will probably be at #24 and closing in, but Rascal Flatts will probably be at #22 and barely ahead of Kip, so he should be able to track them down soon and finally make the pass.

[myeverythingku]

Thanks for the update jhomes!! Go HPG!!

[Deleted]

Kip Moore is at #24 for the week.

[Jhomes87]

Not quite the #23 I guessed last week, but that's because Kip couldn't quite sneak ahead of The Henningsens. They remained about 150k ahead, so hopefully he'll scoot by them this week. Kip did pass Gloriana, and 3 others (Toby, Tim, and LBT) all went recurrent, but TBP, Tim/Taylor/Keith, and the ZBB all jumped ahead of HPG.

HPG, at #24, has 10.7 million impressions. Normally, that level of audience would put a song around the #20 spot. We have 25 songs with over 10.5 million, which really indicates the massive amount of big names we have out there on this part of the chart right now. Now we have a new Blake Shelton song which got airplay every hour yesterday at Clear Channel stations, so he could debut in the top 20 or close to it, and be ahead of Kip after only a few days of airplay. I still like where Kip's at, though, especially if he can remain ahead of Gloriana. I'm expecting him to pass The Henningsens and Rascal Flatts within the next couple of weeks, and then after that he can try to chase down Dustin Lynch.

Kip won't be seeing TBP, the ZBB, Tim/Taylor/Keith, Brad, or Jason again...it's best to just let those big names go up first (Blake's new tune will also join that list of big names, and I'm sure Luke Bryan's new single that will debut in just a week or two will as well), and Kip can ride up the chart in their wake. The key thing is for Kip to pass those that he CAN pass. He got by Gloriana, and the next 'vulnerable' tunes are those by The Henningsens (barely ahead of Kip now), Rascal Flatts, and Dustin Lynch. Careers get built one hit at a time, and Kip's working on hit #3 here.

[myeverythingku]

Sounds great to me!! Thanks so much jhomes!

[Deleted]

Kip Moore slipped at #26 for the week. Someone will not be too happy about that.

[Jhomes87]

Apr 2, 2013 16:28:19 GMT -6 @countrychartnut said:

Kip Moore slipped at #26 for the week. Someone will not be too happy about that.

It's all about the context though. Chart position doesn't matter. Kip has an audience of almost 11.8 million. Now, 99% of the time, he'd be right around #19 or #20 with an audience that high. But it just so happens that we have an insane amount of hit songs all going up the chart at the same time, and we have 26 songs with more than 11.7 million. I have NEVER seen that before.

Nobody went recurrent on last night's chart. I had hoped Kip would sneak ahead of The Henningsens but they remain just barely ahead, at 12 million. Gloriana also snuck back ahead, which I didn't foresee, but they pulled off some big weekend gains to re-pass Kip. Rascal Flatts gained over 700k last week and fell 3 spots, a 20-23 move. Almost everybody went backward, because the big names (Zac Brown Band, The Band Perry, Tim/Taylor/Keith, etc) are all gaining a lot of audience and not enough songs from the top 25 are moving down yet. Then you have Blake's new song that debuted at #19 based off Clear Channel hourly airplay last week Tuesday.

Kip still had a strong gain of more than 1 million last week...it just so happens that this chart is the most competitive one I've ever seen. Something HAS to give (LeAnn Rimes did a song about that a few years ago...)

There's no reason to fret when the chart position doesn't turn out the way we think it will. It's all about the audience and Kip has the audience that a typical top 20 hit would have. The chart will sort itself out on its own time...these same 26 songs that are all over 11 million can't all keep going up at the same time. Kip is within 300k of Rascal Flatts, Gloriana, and The Henningsens...that's such a small number that he could make up that gap in half a day and pass them all on the next chart (I'm not saying he will...I'm just saying he's so close that it's easily possible). Whether he passes all 3 of those artists this week or not doesn't really matter much, though, as I'm very confident that "Hey Pretty Girl" will out-peak those 3 artists' songs.

[myeverythingku]

At first I was totally freaked out, but after reading jhomes post, of course i feel better after the explanation!! Thanks as always!

[Jhomes87]

Kip bounded up 3 spots, from 26-23, on the 4/20 chart from Monday evening. He gained another 1.1 million, finally passing The Henningsens and re-passing Gloriana as well (they've been having a 'see-saw' affair the last couple of weeks). Finally, Carrie Underwood went recurrent, to open up that 3rd spot.

Like I've been saying, the going will remain tough, especially because radio has TONS of new superstar releases on their hands. And now there are new singles by Justin Moore, Billy Currington, Kacey Musgraves, Little Big Town, Carrie Underwood, Luke Bryan, and Hunter Hayes all just hitting the lower portion of the chart.

I do think Kip can climb up a few more spots this week. He's only 200k behind Rascal Flatts now so he may be able to sneak ahead of them. I think Hunter Hayes' "Somebody's Heartbreak" could go recurrent, and maybe Blake's "Sure Be Cool If You Did" and/or Dustin Lynch's "She Cranks My Tractor" could go recurrent as well. Hopefully Kip will gain at least 2 spots to move up to #21, but it's possible that he could find his way up to #20 or #19.

The bullet has shrunk a bit and the audience gains have as well but again, I'm not too worried. There are just a lot of big releases consuming airplay, so considering all that, Kip is actually holding up pretty well.

[myeverythingku]

All of these songs are making me nervous!! There are just so many successful artists these days. Makes it even harder!

[Jhomes87]

Yeah, the chart is definitely tough, and it's showing up a bit this week; Kip's progress has slowed down a bit, with all the new releases out there. HPG is up about 230k in the last 4 days, which is a slower pace than Kip's set the past few weeks. But Kip should pass Rascal Flatts this week, and then we should also have a few songs going recurrent. Hunter Hayes' "Somebody's Heartbreak" will leave, and I think Dustin Lynch's "She Cranks My Tractor" will drop off as well. Another possibility is Blake's "Sure Be Cool If You Did", but I think that one might get one last week on the chart.

With Kip set to pass RF and gain spots from Hunter and also likely from Dustin, HPG should climb 3 spots, from 23-20. If Blake also leaves, then Kip will wind up at #19, but for now I'll predict #20. Kip should bound past the 13.5 million mark and I continue to like his chances of peaking in the top 10 or higher.

[myeverythingku]

Top 10? I want 1!!

[Jhomes87]

Apr 13, 2013 16:34:55 GMT -6 myeverythingku said:

Top 10? I want 1!!

Well he's gotta get to the top 10 first! After that, we can start thinking about #1.

I just don't want you to get your hopes up too much. Kip is still a new artist. There are very few artists who never miss the top 10 in their career. I do think this song can get to #1 but the road is gonna be tougher than normal. So we should take it one step at a time...he's knocking on the door of the top 20 now. Let's see how committed the label is to this. It's selling pretty well, but it could also depend on when Kip wants to move on to that next album. All signs seem to point to HPG being the last single from Up All Night.

[myeverythingku]

Yep, he said in a very recent interview that the label wanted to release one more from Up All Night, but Kip doesn't want to. He said they will be releasing a brand new single from a new album around summertime and the new CD should be out the first of the year! So, basically however far it gets between now and summer...Kip seems ready to get moving with things...he is working so hard!!

[Jhomes87]

As much as I'm excited for new music, I can't help but wish for another single from Up All Night. This album is absolutely perfect and there are so many good songs that won't make it to radio...I'd like for at least one more to make it onto the airwaves after HPG, but I understand if it doesn't happen like that.

Honestly, my least favorite song is "Somethin' 'Bout A Truck" (it's just too stereotypical to me) but I understand why they went with that one, after his "official" first single "Mary Was The Marrying Kind" stalled in the 40's. "Up All Night" could be a big hit, but since Jon Pardi (a newer artist who's on Capitol, which makes him on the same label as Kip) just released a song called "Up All Night", I don't think they'll release Kip's UAN. They are 2 different songs but I don't think Kip's team would release that song now. My choice would actually be "Crazy One More Time" or "Everything But You"...I'd be fine with "Drive Me Crazy" as well.

Anyway, Kip's album has sold about 320k. It's selling about 3,000 to 4,000 copies a week now, so it'll take quite some time to get to Gold status. Still, for a debut record, that's pretty good in today's climate. It compares rather favorable to some other artists...Lee Brice's Hard 2 Love has sold 376k and he's had 3 straight #1 hits (A Woman Like You, Hard To Love, & I Drive Your Truck). Rascal Flatts Changed album just passed the 500k mark, which is still good for them, but they're a much bigger name yet at this point than Kip is, and he's not too far off those numbers. Kenny Chesney's last album stalled out around 635k. Also, Jake Owen is at around 410k sold of Barefoot Blue Jean Night, which features several big hits (Barefoot Blue Jean Night, Alone With You, The One That Got Away, and now the top 20-and-climbing Anywhere With You).

I do want a new Kip album but if it didn't come out until 2014, I'd be ok with that...ok with them sticking with Up All Night for basically the rest of 2013.

[myeverythingku]

Oh, I want another single from Up All Night too!! I agree with you jhomes, that album is absolute perfection. I'd listened to regularly since it came out nearly a year ago and it honestly just doesn't get old. I have heard many songs on the next album though, and they are fantastic as well. But we'll see what they decide to do ... I'm good with anything!!

[Deleted]

Kip Moore is at #21 for the week.

[myeverythingku]

YAY!!!!! Almost Top 20!!

[Deleted]

Third consecutive top 20 hit at #20 for the week!

[myeverythingku]

WOOHOO!!! Next up: 10!!!

[Deleted]

Back to #21 for the week.

[myeverythingku]

[Jhomes87]

Apr 30, 2013 17:29:39 GMT -6 @countrychartnut said:

Back to #21 for the week.

Perhaps some analysis should be given along with this, so as to not discourage Kip fans? The move is incredibly misleading. Kip still gained nearly 700k in audience, and his 14.3 million total would normally put him around #15 or #16. Luke Bryan moved ahead (no surprise there) and The Henningsens re-passed Kip, albeit by only 30k in audience, which is the difference of maybe 1 spin. And since only one song went recurrent, and 2 songs moved ahead, well, there ya go...a 20-21 move.

The chart position does not matter. No artist has control over what the other songs around him/her/them are doing. It's up to Kip to put up the numbers and try to pass who he can and he's doing just fine. If it weren't for the huge amount of superstar releases, HPG would probably be around #16 right now. Rest assured that it should jump up a few more spots again next week. The logjam ahead is probably the biggest one I've ever seen. We've never had 21 songs over 14 million in audience, until now. It just happens that Kip is at the tail end of that group. He's doing just fine, though.

[myeverythingku]

Well, thanks so much for the reassurance jhomes!! Much appreciated.

[Deleted]

Back to peak position of #20 for the week.

[myeverythingku]

Thank you for keeping me updated!! Still waiting for him to dedicate this one to me!

[Deleted]

May 8, 2013 19:07:22 GMT -6 myeverythingku said:

Thank you for keeping me updated!! Still waiting for him to dedicate this one to me!

Why don't you ask him? Don't you have connections?