Kip Moore - "Hey Pretty Girl" (Read 6,501 times)

[myeverythingku]

No! haha not exactly. I am working on it though...making slow but steady progress on the matter!!!

[Jhomes87]

It was a great week for Kip. He jumped up 3 spots, from 20-17. His gain was back up to a strong 1.8 million. He re-passed Gloriana and The Henningsens, and let's hope he can stay ahead of them for good. Ultimately, I've always felt that Kip would out-peak both of their songs, but they were hanging right in there with Kip for the last few weeks. Now, he's pulled back ahead of the pack, and I think he may be able to stay out front.

HPG actually increased its lead over Hunter and Carrie, which is a great sign. Kip's up to 17 million now, and next week he should gain at least 2 more spots and finish no lower than #15. Kip will be passing Jason's "1994" this week, which peaked at #14 a couple weeks back (becoming the 2nd lowest-peaking single of Jason's career), and Kip will gain another spot as Lady A's "Downtown" will go recurrent at the end of the week.

[myeverythingku]

Holy cow!! I'm hearing it much more than I have been. I heard it two times yesterday in the car and I hardly ever listen to the radio anymore....

Love it!!

[Deleted]

Hey Pretty Girl is at #15 for the week.

[myeverythingku]

So 2 spots this week from last? Thanks for keeping me updated!!

[Jhomes87]

Only 2 weeks ago and there was some concern over this, but now Kip has reeled off 2 excellent weeks in a row, and this week is looking great as well. On the week ending April 28th (aka, the chart dated 5/11), Kip only gained 660k as he shifted back a spot, from #20 to #21. Then on the 5/18 chart he moved back up to #20 with a 950k gain. And then he gained 1.8 million and moved 20-17 on the 5/25 chart, followed by a 17-15 move and a monstrous 2.8 million gain this past week.

This looks like a slam dunk top 10 at this point and it could go quite a bit higher, depending on how long MCA wishes to stick with this one. He's actually put a little distance between himself and both Hunter and Carrie again, although it remains to be seen if Kip will stay ahead of those two. For now, he should gain at least another 2 spots this week, as Miranda will go recurrent and Kenny should fall below. Kip might even be able to pass the ZBB as well.

[myeverythingku]

Wow! They don't plan on releasing a lead single until the summer time. No exact date at the moment, but that's the latest! I really hope they can take this one all the way to the top to make it 3 in a row...

[Deleted]

Knockin' at the top ten door at #11. Will be Kip Moore's third consecutive top ten next week.

[myeverythingku]

How many weeks has this song officially been on the charts? Wow!! I feel like Top 10 happened pretty fast..

[Deleted]

May 31, 2013 8:46:57 GMT -6 myeverythingku said:

How many weeks has this song officially been on the charts? Wow!! I feel like Top 10 happened pretty fast..

21 weeks. Same as the #1 song, Wagon Wheel.

[myeverythingku]

Oh wow...longer than I thought. But still great! Thanks!!

[Deleted]

The Zac Brown Band has pushed Kip Moore down to #12.

[Jhomes87]

Jun 5, 2013 10:38:04 GMT -6 @countrychartnut said:

The Zac Brown Band has pushed Kip Moore down to #12.

This would be better served with some analysis. Kip actually had a fine week. He gained another 1.5 million, to move up to nearly 24 million. That, once again, in past years, would be enough to place a song around #8 or so. But there are a lot of big songs with big audience numbers.

Kip actually passed the ZBB on the 6/8 chart; they only managed to barely re-pass him this past week. "Jump Right In" is ahead of Kip by only 53k, so Kip could eventually move back in front.

The top 10 is extremely audience-heavy right now, and we often call that a logjam. But despite all that and the 11-12 move this past week, I actually like where HPG is on the chart a lot. He's still almost 3 million ahead of Hunter Hayes (#13) and nearly 5 million ahead of Carrie (#14). Those are the only 2 threats behind but I think Kip can and will stay ahead of both of them. The Hayes tune is selling well but generating very negative call-out scores (it's almost as if he's a male Taylor Swift-type of artist) and Carrie's tune, while doing pretty well, isn't screaming up the chart, and I think she's far enough behind that she'll stay in the rear-view mirror.

Really, the Zac Brown Band will remain Kip's only competition. Brantley Gilbert is still sitting there at #10 but he's less than 2 million ahead, and his song is very old--33 weeks to be precise, so he can't keep going up much longer. At #9 is former #1, FGL's "Get Your Shine On", which will finally go recurrent on Monday. The Band Perry is at #8 and Luke Bryan is at #6 and those songs are gonna get their chance at #1 a few weeks before Kip. At #7 is Eric Church with a song on its last breath, so like FGL, he'll be clearing out of the way soon too.

Kip could crack the top 10 on Monday. He'd need to play leapfrog with the ZBB once more, though. That gets him back to #11, and then #10 comes since FGL will be dropping off. Or maybe Eric Church can finally start plummeting to help Kip out, but Eric's still hanging on for a thread now.

Anyway, chart position is relative. It's dependent on the other songs. A song can jump 11-7 with a small 500k gain, or it could fall 10-12 with a 2 million gain. It's all about the audience, not the chart position. Because when you look at the big picture, you need audience. And Kip is getting a good deal of that. All he can do is take care of himself...the chart ahead will clear up soon enough and then suddenly, bam! Kip is in perfect position. I can't predict with complete confidence yet that this song will get to #1, but it's got a good chance. One step at a time, though. Top 10, then top 5. At the very least, this should get all the way to the top 3 but I do think it has a pretty good shot of snagging a week at #1 sometime down the road, in the not-so-distant future.

[myeverythingku]

I think it's got a shot too. I will stay very aware of how the single is doing and then get the Kip fans requesting!

[Jhomes87]

Moves back from #12 to #11 on last night's chart. Kip remains in a dead heat with the Zac Brown Band's "Jump Right In"--that one is at #10, but only 100k (exactly) ahead on last night's chart.

The top 10 is finally starting to clear up and Kip remains in very good position. I have to update all the threads here with the chart runs (I'm behind!), but despite going 11-12-11 the last few weeks, this song has been posting strong gains. Look for Kip to officially enter the top 10 on Monday. He could wind up as high as #8, or as low as #10, but it's still too early to figure out exactly what position, since we're only one day into the current week. At the very minimum, though, he should gain one spot, as Eric Church will go recurrent. Kip could land at #9 or #8 if he re-passes the ZBB and/or if he can move ahead of Darius Rucker's falling "Wagon Wheel" by the end of the week.

I can't imagine that Brantley Gilbert's tune will be able to keep climbing for much longer, so he should open up another spot for Kip to gain soon enough. "Highway Don't Care" just wrapped up a 2-week stay at #1 and set an all-time audience record, but it's on the way down now so Kip should pass it by the end of the month.

[myeverythingku]

Oh yes!! This makes me happy!! Thanks jhomes!!

[Deleted]

Top ten +3 at #8!

[myeverythingku]

Holy moly!! I know that this song, along with Beer Money just went Gold!! And the entire album is now certified double platinum....

[Jhomes87]

Jun 19, 2013 15:32:45 GMT -6 myeverythingku said:

Holy moly!! I know that this song, along with Beer Money just went Gold!! And the entire album is now certified double platinum....

No, the album is not double platinum. That would mean sales of 2 million, which would be absolutely incredible for a debut artist. Not even Luke Bryan, Blake Shelton, and Eric Church can sell that much. Heck, hardly anyone can. Jason sold that much with My Kinda Party but it will be a long time before Night Train gets there. Zac Brown Band (The Foundation) and Lady Antebellum (Need You Now) have only sold 2+ million with 1 album each.

Kip's album has sold 350,000 copies. I do think it will get certified Gold (500,000) but it might not happen until 2014 sometime. That's usually what the norm is for these new artists. I know it took several years for Eric Church's first album to go Gold.

"Hey Pretty Girl" and "Beer Money" are both Gold-certified singles, though, that info is correct. "Somethin' 'Bout A Truck" might be close to double platinum but I don't think it's there yet. The 2 million number comes from total number of digital tracks sold, so that means the sales of BM, HPG, and SBAT combined are over 2 million.

Anyway, HPG might temporarily get pushed back a spot to #9 on the next chart. Brantley Gilbert refuses to leave and his label is suddenly pushing his song hard again this week, so he might re-pass Kip (but it'll be brief; Brantley won't be staying ahead). It'll be another week yet, I think, before "Highway Don't Care" finally falls below Kip. The top 5 is incredibly packed right now--strongest top 5 I've ever seen in terms of audience, with the #1 song holding a record 43 million and the entire top 5 all above 36.6 million. Basically, the #3 song has enough audience right now that it'd normally be #1, but we have 5-6 especially huge hits peaking all at the same time.

Kip's position is good, though. He's far enough behind that group of big hits that he doesn't have to worry about any of them blocking HPG from the top. All Kip has to do is post steady gains himself, and in a few weeks that top tier will start to clear out. Brantley Gilbert will have to throw in the towel soon enough, so that leaves the Zac Brown Band as Kip's primary competition, but I think their song will get its shot at #1 and then Kip will follow after. Hunter Hayes and even Randy Houser could also be threats, but I still like Kip's chances of going at least top 3 and it's very possible that he can get to #1 no matter what Hunter and Randy do.

[myeverythingku]

Oh gosh. That's what you get for watching videos on mute. So sorry...guess I should have re watched it before I just automatically assumed that's what it was. Of course, jhomes, you are right...as always lol!! It was for 2 million downloads off of the debut album. But still, that is crazy!! Here is the video from the press conference from his first LP CMA Fest performance ever. Gosh, my boy is growing up so fast!!!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd0P5YJTFes

As far as him getting pushed back...well that really sucks but unfortunately there isn't anything anyone can do to change that. Isn't Brantley part of Big Machine? That would explain things if he was...

[Jhomes87]

Yeah, Brantley is on one of the Big Machine labels and his song has looked like it should go recurrent each of the last few weeks, but suddenly it's gaining again. Kip passed him on Monday, but now Brantley will probably jump ahead again on the next chart.

But it doesn't matter. The end result won't change--Brantley is heading for maybe a #7 peak at best, and Kip should go AT LEAST top 3.

[myeverythingku]

That honestly is so annoying!!! But that's very good that it won't have an impact in the end! Still hoping this song goes all the way!

[Deleted]

Hey Pretty Girl is at #9 for the week. Jhomes87 will analyze it later!

[myeverythingku]

Okay...I'll be waiting!!

[Jhomes87]

I had speculated that Brantley Gilbert would re-pass Kip (maybe for just the one week), but instead it was Hunter Hayes who jumped up ahead. Kip still managed a gain of more than 1 million, jumping up to 29.5 million in the process. Brantley Gilbert is still right there, at 29.3 million, but it looks to me like Kip likely won't need to worry about Brantley anymore. Kip has out-gained Brantley each day this week on Mediabase, so he's probably doing better on Billboard as well.

And Hunter only finished last week about 500k ahead of Kip, so there's a chance Kip could re-pass Hunter, since Kip has also out-gained Hunter on MB this week. That looks like it will be a close battle.

Kip should gain at least 1 spot this week, as "Highway Don't Care" will fall below HPG and go recurrent. A 2nd spot could be gained if Kip does manage to re-pass Hunter which, again, looks like it's gonna be very close. So Kip is guaranteed to at least move back up to #8, with a pretty good chance of landing at a new peak of #7. My rough guess has Kip moving up toward 31 million on Billboard, which is a pretty high total for songs still outside the top 5, but the Billboard panel has seen the additions of several new stations recently, leading to higher audience numbers. And we also have a lot of big names in the top 10, so the top 5 especially is congested right now, and the intense competition has escalated the audience numbers to even higher totals (record totals, actually). But Kip is still in a good position...the top 5 songs will be clearing out soon enough, so Kip can continue to move up nicely not too far behind (but not too close to) the ZBB tune. The only real competition remains Hunter, although we'll have to keep an eye on Randy Houser's red hot summer tune which isn't too far back in the rear view mirror.

[myeverythingku]

Thanks so much jhomes. I know you normally do analysis for Keith, but I really appreciate you taking the time to do it for Kip as well. Means a lot!

[Deleted]

New peak for Hey Pretty Girl: #7. Jhomes87 will analyze it later!

[myeverythingku]

Woohoo!!!! I know it's been on fire lately!

[Jhomes87]

Kip has hit the homestretch and this song has indeed caught fire. A week after a misleading 8-9 move, Kip steps back up 9-7, and pushes Hunter Hayes down 7-9. Kip gained a monstrous 3.3 million on Billboard last week and he continues to pull in the big numbers. In the last 2 days on Mediabase, Kip has gained 680k and 794k, respectively. He has the highest bullet of any song in the top 20. In fact, you have to go all the way down to Jason Aldean's "Night Train" at #29 to find a bigger bullet.

HPG is playing on all stations and getting converted into power mode. And now Kip will get rewarded with a top 5 position. He'll pass both Blake's "Boys 'Round Here" and Jake Owen's "Anywhere With You" on our next Billboard chart, dated 7/20. So it will be a 7-5 move for HPG. Brantley Gilbert and Hunter Hayes are still putting up pretty good numbers as well but I think Kip has asserted that he'll be first in line among this little group.

So look for HPG to land at #5 on Monday's new Billboard chart, and his gain could be closer to 4 million this week. By this time next week, Kip should be tracking down Brad Paisley and closing in quickly on Luke Bryan as well.

[myeverythingku]

Holy crap!!!!!!